In the global financial market, the recent trend of gold prices has attracted significant attention. Affected by a series of tariff policy escalations by US President Trump and the weak US inflation data, the risk - aversion sentiment in the global market has rapidly increased. This situation has directly driven the gold price to climb all the way, reaching a record high of $2,993.85 per ounce.

Looking at the driving factors, the Trump administration has been active in the area of tariffs. It announced a 200% tariff on EU wines, champagnes and other commodities, and refused to cancel the steel and aluminum tariffs that came into effect this week. Moreover, it plans to implement more extensive global trade tariffs on April 2. These measures have intensified global trade tensions, causing concerns about the stability of the global supply chain among the market, and thus prompting investors to seek safe - haven assets, with gold becoming a popular choice.

At the same time, the US inflation data has also contributed to the rise in gold prices. The wholesale inflation data in February stagnated, mainly due to the decline in trade profits. This data has strengthened the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve adopting a loose policy, and the market generally bets that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates ahead of schedule. In this context, gold, as a hedging asset, has become even more attractive.

In addition, the performance of the equity market has also had an impact on the gold market. The S&P 500 index dropped sharply by 10%, marking its first correction in nearly two years, with a market capitalization evaporation of as much as $5 trillion. A large number of investors, driven by risk - aversion needs, have withdrawn funds from the equity market and poured into safe - haven assets such as gold and US Treasuries. Although the yields on 10 - year and 30 - year US Treasuries rose to this month's high, which theoretically should weaken the attractiveness of gold, the strong market risk - aversion sentiment still dominates, keeping the gold price on an upward trend.

Many institutions are also optimistic about the future performance of gold. Macquarie Group in Australia expects that due to the continuous escalation of trade tensions and the increasing uncertainty of the US economic outlook, the gold price will rise to $3,500 per ounce in the second quarter. BNP Paribas also raised its gold price forecast, believing that its average price will far exceed $3,000 per ounce.

From the perspective of market outlook, in the short term, the Federal Reserve's policy signals have become the focus of market attention. If the Federal Reserve continues to send dovish signals, gold is expected to remain strong and further challenge the $3,000 mark. In the medium term, the rise of gold still depends on risk - aversion demand. If Trump further expands the scope of trade tariffs, the market risk - aversion sentiment may further push up the gold price. And if the Federal Reserve takes more aggressive interest rate cut measures, the US dollar may weaken, which will further boost the demand for gold. In the long term, concerns about economic recession are expected to support gold at a high level. Factors such as economic slowdown, fluctuations in US Treasury yields, and geopolitical risks will continue to provide impetus for the rise of gold prices. Overall, the trade policies of the Trump administration and the weak US economic data have jointly driven the gold price to a record high. If trade conflicts continue to escalate in the future, the gold price may further break through the $3,000 level and even challenge the $3,500 mark.