In the dynamic changes of the financial market, the CBOT grain futures market showed a complex and differentiated trend on March 13. A variety of factors intertwined, profoundly affecting the trends of various agricultural product futures, and the changes in the position structure have become the focus of market attention.

Looking at the position data, on March 12, commodity funds accelerated the increase of net short positions in CBOT corn, soybean meal, and soybean oil contracts, while the number of open long and short positions in CBOT soybeans and wheat was the same. In the past five trading days, the funds increased speculative net long positions in corn, soybeans, and wheat, and increased net short positions in soybean meal and soybean oil. In the past 30 trading days, the funds increased speculative net short positions in all varieties. These data changes reflect the continuous adjustment of market participants' expectations and emotions towards different agricultural products.

Specific to each variety, in the wheat market, the spot basis of US hard red winter wheat remained stable. The farmers' reluctance to sell and the low - level rebound of the KC futures price provided some support. However, the commodity funds increased their net short positions by 5,000 lots in 30 days, indicating that the long - term short - term pattern remained unchanged. In terms of international procurement, Algeria's procurement mainly relied on grain sources from the Black Sea and Eastern Europe, which squeezed the export space of US wheat. Although Tunisia, Jordan, and Syria had tendering demands, their high sensitivity to prices limited the premium space of US wheat. In terms of weather factors, the prediction of less precipitation in the central plains of the United States from March to May may affect the growth of winter wheat. If the drought expectation intensifies, it may trigger short - covering. Technically, if the KC May contract breaks through the neck - line resistance of $5.80 per bushel, it is expected to open up short - term rebound space.

The soybean market faces many pressures. The CIF basis in the United States has fallen, the import licenses of some US companies have been suspended, and the EU's retaliatory tariff policy has exacerbated market concerns about exports. Although the commodity funds increased their net long positions in the past five days, the net short positions accumulated to 25,000 lots in 30 days, showing that institutions are cautious about the medium - term fundamentals. The supply pressure in South America continues. The decline in Brazilian soybean meal prices and the weakening of high - protein soybean meal prices in Europe have squeezed the export profits of US soybean meal. Technically, if the CBOT May soybean fails to regain the support level of $9.98 - 1/2 per bushel, it may drop to the $9.80 per bushel range.

The corn market shows a "near - strong and far - weak" characteristic. Ethanol plants in the Midwest of the United States raised the spot basis quotation to stimulate farmers to sell, but the decline in futures prices suppressed market sentiment. Commodity funds increased their net short positions significantly in a single day, and the net short positions accumulated a large amount in 30 days. However, the increase in net long positions in 5 days implies the need for technical repair after short - term overselling. On the export side, if the US Department of Agriculture's export sales forecast can reach a high level, it may ease market concerns about weak demand. However, the smooth sowing of the second - season corn in South America and the loose global supply limit the height of the corn price rebound.

Soybean meal futures are affected by the global surplus of protein meal. The CBOT May contract price dropped to a one - week low, and commodity funds increased their net short positions. The spot basis of soybean meal in the United States remained flat, but the export premium narrowed, and the EU rapeseed meal price fell, weakening the competitiveness of US soybean meal. Soybean oil faces the uncertainty of biofuel demand. Trump's tariff remarks have triggered market concerns about the biodiesel trade flow. Commodity funds increased their net short positions in 5 days. Technically, if the May contract loses the key support level, the downward space may be further expanded.

Looking ahead, for wheat, we need to pay attention to the drought situation and the international tendering rhythm. For soybeans, they are affected by trade policy risks, South American harvests, and the US soybean planting intention report. The sustainability of the corn rebound depends on export data and ethanol capacity utilization. For soybean meal, we need to track the South American crushing progress, and the volatility of soybean oil is related to the linkage with the energy market. The market has entered the transition stage between the policy - sensitive period and the weather - market period. The position structure and basis changes have important leading indications for market trends.