In the current financial market, the trend of gold prices has attracted widespread attention. Recently, the rise of gold prices has been rather peculiar. Despite the absence of many traditional driving factors, gold prices have continued to climb. Ross Norman, the CEO of Metals Daily, has conducted an in - depth analysis of this.

Regarding the correlation between gold and other assets, its performance has deviated from historical norms. Traditionally, gold has often been regarded as a hedge against inflation. When inflation rises, gold prices tend to increase accordingly. However, in 2024, as Western inflation rates dropped rapidly, gold prices accelerated their upward movement. At the same time, the relationships between gold and the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and silver have also broken the regular patterns. Normally, when the US dollar strengthens, gold weakens; when US Treasury yields are high, investors prefer bonds to gold; when the precious metals sector is bullish, silver outperforms gold. But in 2024, the US dollar and gold rose together, gold and US Treasury yields moved in tandem, and the gold - silver ratio soared, with silver underperforming. Moreover, the demand for gold in Asia remains strong even when gold prices are at historical highs, which is contrary to the previous highly price - sensitive nature of Asian buyers.

In response to this abnormal phenomenon, Norman proposed three possible explanations. First, the correlation between gold and other assets has changed. However, given the logical basis of these correlations, this view is unlikely to hold. Second, a paradigm shift has occurred in the gold market, with the East having an increasing influence on price discovery. However, this theory has not been fully verified. Third, a large and opaque market participant is driving the market behind the scenes, and this view is endorsed by many analysts.

From the perspective of buying characteristics, the buying power driving the rise of gold prices is extremely opaque. Market data is difficult to reveal its source. The buying is highly concentrated, and there are almost no signs of profit - taking, as if it is driven by a powerful single entity. This buying power has made the trend of gold prices ignore traditional negative factors.

Upon further exploration, there are two potential factors contributing to the significant increase in gold prices. On the one hand, there are a large number of leveraged long positions in the derivatives market. When speculators purchase a large number of gold call options, it will prompt banks to conduct hedging operations in the spot market, thereby driving up gold prices. On the other hand, with the intensification of global financial sanctions, some central banks are concerned about the risks of US dollar - denominated assets and may secretly and massively purchase gold, with a relatively low sensitivity to prices.

Looking ahead, although gold has performed remarkably well at the beginning of this year, Norman believes that gold prices may enter a consolidation phase. Although the current bull market has not ended, the upward momentum has weakened, and gold prices have fallen below the trading channel. However, the consolidation period will accumulate strength for the future rise of gold prices, and the market also needs time to adjust its perception of the "fair value" of gold.