As the global financial market closely monitors the direction of the US economy, the recent actions of several Wall Street investment banks have drawn widespread attention. They have successively lowered their forecasts for US economic growth, putting stagflation risks in the spotlight.

Since last year, the market had been optimistic about a "soft landing" for the US economy. However, a series of recent data indicate that the US economic situation has become more complex. While the economic growth rate is slowing down, the inflation rate remains above the target level, and the unemployment rate is gradually rising, significantly intensifying the stagflation risks. Morgan Stanley lowered its annual GDP growth forecast from 1.9% to 1.5%, and Goldman Sachs reduced its GDP forecast from 2.4% to 1.7% while raising its inflation expectations. Julian Emanuel, an analyst at Evercore ISI, pointed out that trade policies and policies of newly established government agencies may drive up inflation and curb economic growth, further increasing stagflation risks.

The employment data released last Friday showed that the US added 151,000 jobs in February, but the unemployment rate increased slightly, and wage growth was strong, which exacerbated market concerns about inflation. At the same time, the price - payment index of the US manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reached its highest level since June 2022, indicating that companies are still under significant cost pressure. In this situation, the Federal Reserve faces a difficult decision. Although market bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts are increasing, with Wall Street economists expecting the Fed to cut rates at least three times in 2025, with the first cut possibly in June, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warned that the inflation path remains " bumpy". If inflation rebounds more than expected, the Fed may maintain high interest rates for a longer period.

Affected by concerns about stagflation and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, the trend of the US dollar index is complex. Factors such as rate - cut expectations, safe - haven demand, and inflation data all play a role. Currently, there are significant differences in market views on the US dollar. Some investment banks believe that the US dollar may continue to be under pressure in the second quarter, but it still has room for recovery in the long term.

Gold has performed strongly recently, mainly due to concerns about stagflation, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and a weakening US dollar. If the market expects the Fed to cut rates in June, real interest rates may decline, and gold will benefit. In the context of stagflation, the stock and bond markets may perform weakly, and funds are more likely to flow into safe - haven assets such as gold. Overall, given the increasing uncertainty in the US economy, the strengthening of stagflation expectations, and the rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, gold has the potential to rise further in the short term.