Gold Remains Overbought but Well Supported
Source Admin
2025-04-18 17:28:00

Gold prices have reached record highs, driven by fears of a global recession and trade tensions, but analysts warn that the market is significantly overbought and a correction could be imminent. Despite this, gold remains supported by ongoing dollar weakn

Gold prices hit a record high above $3,350 an ounce on Thursday before profit-taking set in as markets closed for the Easter long weekend on Friday. Despite looking overbought, some analysts say the market remains in a solid uptrend.


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Despite selling pressure, gold held firm support near $3,300.

 

David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, described this week's gold price action, including Wednesday's $100 rally, as a blow-off top.

 

He said: "Gold has risen 13% or $360 in one week. So investors should not be surprised by the current price pullback. Gold looks extremely overbought with its daily MACD indicator hitting the highest level since April 2011 before peaking. This doesn't mean gold can't go higher, but buyers should be cautious at these levels."

 

Amid gold's resilience, the dollar is set to close the week at a three-year low of 99.49 points.

 

Christopher Vecchio, futures and forex director at Tastylive.com, said gold should continue to benefit from further dollar weakness. He noted that while the dollar is not expected to lose its reserve currency status anytime soon, President Trump's erratic trade policies have weakened America's position in global markets.

 

"We're moving away from 'Pax Americana' back to 'America First,' which is a very different set of rules. There is no other currency that can fill the gap left by the reserve currency, so we are somewhat stuck with the dollar, but we need something else. That's gold," he said.

 

Brown Brothers Harriman's forex analysts also expect further dollar weakness, which will continue to underpin gold's unprecedented rally. Goldman Sachs Global Head of FX Strategy, Win Thin, wrote in a report on Friday: "We still believe recent USD weakness is largely due to diminishing confidence in US policymakers and the negative impact of policy uncertainty on the US economy. Therefore, we expect continued USD weakness and view any recovery as quite fragile regardless of US economic data." In this environment, Vecchio said he still views any dip in gold as a buying opportunity.

 

However, investors face the question of where gold should be priced amid unprecedented momentum. FXTM senior research analyst Lukman Otunuga noted gold's rally above $3,350 pushed year-to-date gains to 28%, surpassing last year's 24% increase.

 

He said: "With fears of a global recession and trade tensions drawing investors towards the safe-haven embrace of precious metals, gold continues to shine. However, given how severely overbought gold is, a technical correction could be around the corner before prices push higher. Depending on the intensity of the correction, gold could slide towards $3,250, $3,140, and the psychological level of $3,000 is a significant support level. If $3,300 proves to be a reliable support level, gold could push towards the next psychological level of $3,400 and beyond."

 

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said he believes gold could see a substantial correction, though he does not expect it next week.

 

He said: "Gold will eventually pause and experience a $200-$300 correction, but now is not the time as there are too many unresolved issues, exacerbated by Trump's recent attacks on Powell, which may elevate bond market risks."

 

On Thursday, President Trump complained about Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the Fed's monetary policy stance, adding more uncertainty to the markets. On Wednesday, Powell maintained his neutral stance at the Chicago Economic Club, emphasizing growing inflation threats despite increased economic risks.

 

Trump tweeted: "Always late and wrong Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell gave another speech yesterday that was another typical, completely 'messy' report! The sooner Powell is removed, the better!"

 

The Fed's stance contrasts sharply with the European Central Bank, which cut rates on Thursday and hinted at further cuts as inflation pressures ease.

 

Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com, said he sees increasing risk that gold's move prepares for a prolonged consolidation similar to other major rallies.

 

He pointed out that gold is trading 61% above its 200-week moving average, a premium of $1,275.

 

He said: "It's hard to see such a large divergence persist without strong macroeconomic conditions supporting it. Yes, today's environment might justify it, but mean reversion tends to bring things back in line."

 

Some analysts say gold will remain sensitive to global trade and geopolitical headlines amid a relatively light economic calendar.


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